Thursday, May 31, 2007

Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK): Samsung continues to have problems with NAND

- Oppenheimer comments on Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) saying checks show that Samsung continues to have issues at 51nm and has made little progress with 51nm output still limited <5%. Samsung has had trouble moving to 51nm since mid-February when it hinted at moving out its product transition timetable. Hynix also continues to have issues moving to the 60nm node, constraining NAND flash expansion plans at both OEMs. This compares very favorably for SNDK-Toshiba who brought on 300mm/53nm NAND Flash in Feb-07 and continues to ramp into production at Fab3.

OpCp is also hearing that the 2nd batch of Apple iPhone orders are starting to come in and could provide provide some more stability to the demand/pricing picture. NAND flash spot prices continue to be stable, compared to last year this time when NAND spot/contract prices were down 5-10%. While near term retail demand picture in May might be soft, they see retail demand picking up in late June and into 2H07. Maintains Buy and $53 tgt on SNDK.

Notablecalls: This may create some buy interest in SNDK today. Would have called it actionable yesterday but following the almost $2 bounce, I'm somewhat more cautious.

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